Forecasting the price of oil alquist

WHAT DO WE LEARN FROM THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL FUTURES? 541 (2008a, 2009). That alternative estimate is based on a structural VAR model of the global crude oil market and does not rely on data from the oil futures market. We show that the VAR-based measure and the futures-based measure have a correlation as high as 81% during 1989.1–2003.12. Third, EconPapers: Forecasting the Price of Oil Forecasting the Price of Oil. Ron Alquist (), Lutz Kilian and Robert Vigfusson () . Chapter Chapter 8 in Handbook of Economic Forecasting, 2013, vol. 2, pp 427-507 from Elsevier. Abstract: We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An ... Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis ∗ Christiane Baumeister Lutz Kilian† Bank of Canada University of Michigan CEPR Xiaoqing Zhou University of Michigan September 18, 2014 Abstract Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in EconPapers: Forecasting the Price of Oil Forecasting the Price of Oil. Ron Alquist (), Lutz Kilian and Robert Vigfusson () . No 8388, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Abstract: We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model

OIL PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE LONG TERM: EXPERT …

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates? Domenico Ferraro, Ken Rogo⁄and Barbara Rossi that the e⁄ects of oil price changes on exchange rates are short-lived and that the frequency and Vigfusson (2011) for a review of the literature on forecasting oil prices and Obstfeld (2002) for a discussion on the correlation between nominal Forecasting Crude Oil Price Volatility prices, and futures prices in forecasting the spot price of oil, as well as into the extent to which the real and the nominal price of oil are predictable.1 However, reliable forecasts of oil price volatility are of interest for various economic agents. First and most obviously, accurate … Forecasting oil prices - - Munich Personal RePEc Archive Munich Personal RePEc Archive Forecasting oil prices Degiannakis, Stavros and Filis, George The importance of oil price forecasting has been long established in the extant literature, as well as, in the economic press and policy documents. Alquist and Kilian (2010) also focus on the information extracted by the Forecasting the Price of Oil - CORE Abstract. We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications?

Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An ...

Apr 27, 2018 Factors that complicate forecasting crude oil prices … Price of oil can, to a [8] Likewise, Alquist and Kilian (2010) and Alquist et al. (2011) also  2While futures prices for crude oil do exist for maturities of as long as seven years , the market is much less liquid at maturities longer than two years; see Alquist  We thank Ron Alquist, the editor, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. William Wu provided excellent research assistance.